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Wu Hequan: metauniverse will develop in the future, but it cannot replace the next generation of Internet

Time : 26/04/2022 Author : rwjkn2 Click : + -
        The world faces uncertainties such as covid-19, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, inflation in the United States and Europe, and anti globalization. China is also subject to uncertainties such as shrinking internal demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations. Of course, China also has certain development goals such as low-carbon, green and clean, and the goal of building a new pattern of "double circulation" and achieving common prosperity. Meanwhile, the main economic data in the first half of 2022 were affected by the epidemic, and the growth rate was lower than expected. However, it is worth noting that the economic indicators related to digitization are quite bright and grow against the trend. Shannon, the founder of information theory, said that information is used to reduce random uncertainty, and the value of information is increased with certainty.
        Therefore, through digital acquisition and analysis of data, we can greatly eliminate the asymmetry of various information, optimize resource allocation, improve the agility of responding to positive changes in the industrial chain and supply chain, and enhance the flexibility in the face of uncertainty. The second challenge is that China's Internet enterprises have bid farewell to the barbarous growth stage and entered a standardized and orderly development. The Chinese government has always been prudent and tolerant in the management of the Internet, creating opportunities for the development of the Internet, but also leaving room for the savage growth of the Internet. There have been behaviors that disrupt the Internet market, such as using large platforms to monopolize and suppress peers, abusing algorithms to infringe privacy, and damaging consumer interests. After the unprecedented national Internet Governance in 2021, the Internet enterprises once failed to understand the regulation, which was manifested in the weakening of the development expectation, confusion of the development path, and the slowdown of the Internet manufacturers.
        It is hoped that Internet enterprises will correctly understand governance and believe that the state will do it in a long-term and stable way in terms of regulation, and the development of the Internet industry will be more standardized and orderly. The third challenge is that the number of Internet users is basically saturated. The Internet penetration rate has reached 70%, and users spend an average of 4 hours on the Internet every day, which is close to the ceiling. It is not easy to rely on the growth of users to drive the growth of the Internet. However, there are still good opportunities in the transition period. In the 1990s, when the Internet entered commercial use, a number of Internet enterprises were born in China; With the application of mobile communication, especially 4G, new technologies such as cloud computing, blockchain, big data, Internet of things and artificial intelligence have emerged in the mobile Internet era; Now, with the commercial use of 5g and the arrival of the industrial Internet era, industrial Internet, trusted Internet and value Internet have been created.
        At present, the Internet has gradually evolved from the earliest IPv4 standard to the IPv6 standard. In May 2022, the number of active users of IPv6 in China was nearly 710 million, accounting for 67.12% of the total number of Internet users in China. There are three major trends in the development of IPv6. First, the transition from IPv4 to IPv6 is accelerating. IPv6 traffic has accounted for 10.8% of metropolitan area network traffic and 40.8% of LTE mobile network traffic respectively. Second, from the dual stack of IPv4 and IPv6 to the single stack of IPv6, the United States even proposed that the single stack of IPv6 is the only choice for the future innovation and growth of the network. The third is the development from IPv6 to IPv6 +. The driving force of adopting IPv6 is not only to supplement the address shortage, but also to pay more attention to the development of spatial capacity and innovation potential of IPv6 addresses.
        The first feature of the second half of the Internet is the industrial Internet to integrate it and ot (operation technology). The industrial Internet has traditional industrial control equipment, which controls the production equipment instruments and meters according to the specified procedures and collects the data reflected by them. The 5g era also plays such a role. By adding edge computing and other support to further analyze the data, it is sent to the workshop to join the cloud machine interface and monitoring data collection and monitoring system to further collect the data; It can also be modeled and sent to the factory. Through various risk control software, cloud computing and other support, the solution can be transformed into an app for promotion and use. 5g industrial module is not only an industrial module, but also an IOT module, which promotes the flattening, IP and intelligence of the factory.
        The second feature of the second half of the Internet is that China is about to enter the "double Gigabit" era. By the end of June 2022, more than% of China's 5g mobile lines were connected. At present, the average monthly use of mobile Internet is 14.07gb, the average download rate of fixed network has reached 60MB, and the download rate of mobile network is also close to 60MB. The difference between the two is not significant. China's 100m fiber broadband access has accounted for 93.7% of broadband users, and Gigabit access users account for 10.9%. The difference between 5g and 4G is not felt by ordinary users when they download, but it is very important for unmanned driving, telemedicine and other applications. The difference between VR and other applications will also be clearly reflected in the future.
        However, the current application ecology has not been built, so the people's feeling is not so obvious. The third feature of the second half of the Internet is the advent of the era of computing power. In May 2021, the state officially implemented the project of "counting from the east to the west". It is expected that China's computing power will increase by 20% ~ 30% at the end of the 14th Five Year Plan period, with an annual increase of about 400 billion yuan. In 2021, the United States accounted for 31%, China accounted for 27%, Japan accounted for about 5%, Germany 10%, and Britain 3%. In the computing industry, enterprises are the business consumers of computing power network, and there are also the business providers of computing power network in the society. The two are integrated through the trading platform of computing power network. In the management of artificial intelligence platform, they can be directly connected to the edge of cloud network through the control surface of computing power network.
        In 2020, China's computing industry will reach 2 trillion yuan, directly and indirectly driving economic output of 1.7 trillion yuan and 6.3 trillion yuan. Web1.0 is the Internet of PC, with the portal as the center and the web browser, users can obtain content from the Internet one-way. The main applications include browsing and searching, which are generally accepted passively by users. Web2.0 is the mobile Internet, and the network platform has become the center and leading. This platform includes Tencent, Tiktok, etc. the main basic technology is mobile communication and offline network. Users can realize two-way interaction, and can participate in the creation, dissemination and sharing of online information products through microblog podcasts, community discussions, etc. the main applications are e-commerce, mobile payment, wechat and Tiktok.
        But it also brings the problem of platform monopoly. If users submit some works on the Internet, it is difficult to guarantee their rights and interests. At present, in the era of Web3.0, some people call it the value Internet. It is actually decentralized, or it can be said that there is a center, but it is user centric. The main supporting technologies are blockchain, digital identity authentication and digital currency. Compared with Web2.0, users can determine the ownership of online works through blockchain, digital watermarking and other technologies, and can not be taken away by anyone. In the future, Web3.0 can have digital collections, which are called non-homogeneous tokens or non-homogeneous tokens in foreign countries. We can realize the association between digital assets and physical assets through Web3.0.
        But the problem is that blockchain has costs. After Web1.0 and Web2.0, will Web3.0 become the mainstream in the future? In my opinion, Web3.0 is an improvement of Web2.0, which provides the right confirmation for the works created by users on the Internet and realizes the benefit sharing between the platform and users. This is a positive side. However, the proportion of bloggers who really want to publish their works on the Internet to the total number of netizens is small, and not all game players need to use the blockchain to authenticate the chips and equipment obtained by their games, because these require costs. Therefore, Web3.0 is not just needed, at least it will not be popularized to the public.
        Therefore, Web3.0 can only be said to be the evolution version of Web2.0, and cannot bear the heavy responsibility of being the next generation Internet. The digital twin maps the real events to the network virtual world, while the meta universe is the opposite. It loads the imaginary virtual space into the real space, which blurs the boundary between simulation and reality. The narrow sense of metauniverse integrates user avatars, content production, social interaction, online games, virtual currency payment and other cyberspace based on VR, AR and Mr technologies. It is the integration of modern information technology, involving 5g, IP network, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, virtual reality, blockchain, digital currency, Internet of things, human-computer interaction, etc., but it requires higher requirements for these technologies.
        In this sense, it is unlikely that these technologies can meet the needs of the metauniverse within a few years. And the metauniverse needs higher bandwidth. VR, AR and other scenes can be supported by 5g, but involving virtual reality, augmented reality, mixed reality, holographic images, and future sensory interconnection, these high-level applications can not be supported by 5g. In the future, there may be thousands of concurrent volumes in the metauniverse, and the user throughput may reach TB, which must be 6G. In addition, the prospect of metauniverse is not clear enough. Metauniverse is mainly oriented to consumer applications, such as cultural tourism, high-speed rail, games, sensory interaction, etc., and there are also a few industrial applications, including digital creativity, virtual office space, etc. However, its business model is not fundamentally different from the current social media VR and AR, and metauniverse is still a niche market.
        So, for the thinking of the next generation Internet, will the meta universe lead the future? My point is, No. The meta universe will develop in the future, but it cannot be replaced. "The next generation Internet is mainly a meta universe" is definitely not true. There are three laws in communication technology: the first is Moore's law. The chip performance doubles every 18 months to 24 months. This growth rate has not shown a significant decline at present. The existence of Moore's law still drives the high innovation and high growth of the digital economy; The second is Medcalf's law, that is, the value of the network is directly proportional to the square of the number of users it connects. The more users, the greater the value of the network, which shows the high penetration rate of the network economy; The third is gilde's law, that is, the bandwidth of the backbone network will double every six months in the next 25 years, which actually reflects that the marginal cost of the digital economy has decreased significantly, which shows the wide coverage of the digital economy.
        China has the largest population in the world, and China has the best broadband penetration rate. The broadband penetration rate of over 100 megabytes is 93.7%, which has covered all townships and towns. 5g also covers all townships and towns, which needs to be further deepened. The average download rate of China's fixed network broadband is the ninth in the world, and the download rate of mobile network is the seventh in the world, reducing the cost of enterprise transformation. Moreover, China has a large population and a large number of users, which has the greatest benefits of Medcalf. In addition, China has the largest market, so the development of China's digital economy can get the best return at the lowest cost in the world. However, the Internet is still the leading force of China's digital economy.
        (this article is compiled from the keynote speech delivered by Wu Hequan at the digital technology theme forum "how far is the next generation Internet from us" at the 2022 Beijing News shell finance summer Summit) (Zhongxin Jingwei APP).
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