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Does the threshold of such "ethereal cat" games decrease? The first batch of blockchain game companies have closed down and run away

Time : 18/03/2022 Author : 8eik6v Click : + -
        It seems that the success of cryptokitties when the price of a cat soared to one million has just passed. New similar games are launched almost every day in the world, but the first batch of blockchain game companies have started to close down. Just two months later, the official wechat of frog dog, a blockchain game company, admitted that the company's developers had made money to run away. Le dog cloud, which went online, announced that the project was closed due to huge losses, while the heroes of the Three Kingdoms of chain control announced that the project was suspended because they failed to solve the core technical problems. More homogeneous blockchain games are facing the dilemma of declining daily life and losing users. On November 28, 2017, a blockchain game named cryptokitties was launched, setting off a whirlwind of cat sucking. It became the application with the highest daily usage rate of the Ethereum ecosystem, accounting for more than 16% of the transaction traffic of the Ethereum network. The price of a single cat in the game once soared to more than one million dollars.
        The sudden wealth effect of bitcoin and the successful template of the blockchain game cryptokitties have attracted the attention of global capital and companies. One month later, axiomzen, the studio that developed cryptokitties, completed the round a financing of US $70 million. According to the statistical data of dapprad, there are at least 100 blockchain games in the world. After the popularity of cryptokitties, the Chinese version of "ethereal animals" emerged one after another. Xunlei, langang interactive, Yiqiao Co., Ltd. (the subsidiary of Haoxin Internet), Netease, youjiu, the ninth city, Tianshen entertainment, Taiqi interactive,, zhongqingbao and other companies followed suit one after another. Playmonkey, baolima, Yunyu, pet planet and so on were launched one after another. For a time, "the zoo was not enough".
        Even after the policy guidance in January, domestic Baidu, 360, etc. launched blockchain pets that do not involve transactions. Many small companies are still eager to try. In addition to ether pets, it is rumored that ether westward travel and ether water margin are all on the road. Compared with the game replacement in the mobile game era, the current threshold of "blockchain game replacement" seems to be further falling. Take cryptokitties as an example. This game is mainly based on the smart contract of Ethereum, and its code is basically open source. The threshold of "changing skins" has been lowered to only a few images or cards, so subsequent players can enter the game in a very short time. At present, in addition to strategies such as how to write your own cryptokitties style games on Ethereum, outsourcing technology solutions providers such as square have also indicated on the official website that they can provide corresponding solutions, further reducing the R & D cost and cycle of similar games.
        The core driving force behind the popularity of cryptokitties and other popular games like cryptocountries is mainly speculation rather than the game itself. Once the speculative enthusiasm drops, these games with low playability will face the problem of low retention of users, and a sharp decline in dau, activity and flow. Take cryptokitties as an example. In addition to its innovation and the scarcity of themes, it also came from the strong speculative power of the outside world. Looking at the posts of the post bar and the strategies of the network, it is not difficult to find that most of the participants have the mentality of "organic and profitable". The core point of many people's attention is still "can cryptokitties make money" and "how cryptokitties make money".
        In essence, the game is the release of human nature in a short time, and the blockchain is the amplifier of this release. Taking cryptokitties as an example, the support of blockchain technology and the design of the game make cryptokitties have strong randomness, and the output of the combination of cats and cats has the randomness similar to the lottery; Its breeding system makes its gambling nature go beyond the lottery link in traditional games; Because each cat is unique, it has a collection value, and the collection value of cats is affected by people's subjective aesthetics, which makes the game possible to speculate. To a certain extent, cryptokitties and other blockchain based games have become speculative tools under the cloak of games.
        When the enthusiasm for speculation fades, these games with low playability will face the problem of low retention of users, and a sharp decline in dau, activity and flow. 36 krypton checked the monitoring data of dapprad (see the figure below), which also confirmed this view. In the game, the value of traded items is also declining significantly. Take cryptokitties as an example. Since January 15, many netizens have reported that there are cats that can not be sold. However, in the current game, even generation 0 cats are sold for less than 1eth. In fact, it is not surprising that the retention of users of these games is low, and dau, activity, and water flow are declining.
        In the final analysis, the game finally needs to return to playability. Just imagine, without the sudden wealth effect of bitcoin and the psychological drive of speculation, a game of recharging to buy random virtual goods and conduct transactions is likely to have few users. Such games represented by cryptokitties need to be built on the user network, so they have high requirements on the operation ability of the game, which is reflected in the design of the game mechanism, the acquisition and operation of game users. At present, many game teams are not outstanding in these abilities. Legouyun, a blockchain game company based on blockchain, said on its official website Weibo that the closure of the project due to huge losses is precisely the embodiment of this reason.
        Although blockchain games have lowered the threshold of participation in digital asset transactions, without essential innovation and game playability improvement, they are likely to face competition from gaming games, applications and ICOS, and are not as competitive as the latter. However, even when the first batch of blockchain game companies have started to close down and run away, we believe that there are still certain opportunities for blockchain games. Such as:. ① If the current blockchain game company can use this time window to accumulate a large number of users, it is likely to become an entry point for digital assets in the future, and it may be able to enter the wallet, transaction and other links. However, in addition to the requirements for operational capability, the requirements for the technical capability of the team will also be further improved.
        ② Gambling, chess and card games may benefit from technology. One of the pain points of chess and card games and gambling games is that it is difficult for users to believe in their fairness. Theoretically, the decentralized and non tamperability of blockchain technology just solves this problem. Under the current policy uncertainty, some games have realized the exchange of token to legal currency by means of the token mechanism. However, in the long run, there are still policy risks in this practice. ③ Non stand-alone games use blockchain technology to generate and distribute props, which may enhance players' trust in the authenticity of props and thus enhance their willingness to buy. ① Game props and content generated in the game are also digital assets in essence.
        By using blockchain technology, the copyright and revenue of UGC content generated by Games will be guaranteed. Major game manufacturers including Ubisoft are also exploring this aspect. ② Based on blockchain technology, cross game asset trading will be possible. Currently, more than 2.3 billion people play games on different platforms and devices in the world every day. Only 6% of the players can benefit from the trading of props, with a profit of about US $4 billion. Whether blockchain technology can enable the remaining 94% of players to participate in it deserves attention. ③ The token reward mechanism of the blockchain allows users to participate in the dissemination, iteration and innovation of the game through technology and rules, and obtain corresponding benefits from it. It is possible to form a new distribution form within a certain range.
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