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Forecast market: a large market for large-scale application of blockchain smart contracts? Breakthrough?

Time : 25/08/2021 Author : ycin38 Click : + -
        With the approaching of the 2018 Russian football World Cup, people pay more and more attention to football. So, what will happen to the hot blockchain and football? For the blockchain prediction project, it is an excellent promotion opportunity. A few days ago, He Xi noticed that two domestic application projects based on blockchain smart contract "oracle" began to become active. They are oraclechain and Delphy. Oraclechain is a multi blockchain decentralized Oracle technology platform built on the EOS ecosystem. It uses the independent pord mechanism to introduce real-world data into the blockchain and provide services for other blockchain applications as an infrastructure.
        Oraclechain will provide Oracle services for real-world data within the blockchain, and can also provide Oracle services for cross chain data. Based on oraclechain, in addition to realizing the functions of prediction market applications such as augur and gnosis, it can also support the smart contract business with higher frequency access demand for data outside the chain, such as intelligent investment consultants. Delphy uses the incentive mechanism of the market to help market participants express their confidence and judgment on the future events in real time, so as to effectively predict the future.
        Although oraclechain (European chain) and Delphy (Tiansuan) have been introduced above, some people may still feel a little confused about what they do. Are you familiar with it? Think about the kinds of lottery tickets you buy. Of course, this is only a simple example. In fact, on the two prediction platforms, users can participate in many prediction "events", such as finance, insurance, sports events and entertainment listed above. 2. Since its birth, the forecast market has been subject to strict financial supervision, resulting in a lack of users and transaction scale, and it has been left out of the mainstream market. For example, the famous one was closed because it did not comply with the bank laws of the United States.
        4. The forecast market has a certain competitive relationship with the existing intellectual circles and all social public opinion channels, which makes it in an awkward position. Tiansuan is a prediction market based on Ethereum. First of all, based on Ethereum, Tiansuan's prediction data is the consensus of the whole network, and its tamper proof characteristics can enable Tiansuan's prediction platform to prove its innocence. Secondly, the distributed structure also makes the prediction market have global liquidity and can attract a large number of users. Finally, the Tiansuan forecast market adopts the Tiansuan digital currency reward mechanism, which can stimulate the intellectual community and attract more professionals to participate. 1. Low cost. The collection of massive data and the frequent replacement of models lead to the high cost of big data analysis. In contrast, the prediction market collects market information through the incentive mechanism, and the cost is low.
        2. Closer to reality. The factors affecting events are very complex, and it is difficult for big data analysis models to accurately simulate all social phenomena. In contrast, the forecast market is result oriented and directly gathers people's confidence and judgment on the event results. 3. Better timeliness. The massive data sources of big data are all based on historical data, and people's behavior may change with the passage of time. The results obtained from previous data analysis may not be suitable for future decisions. In contrast, the forecasting market can collect people's latest views on events in real time through the incentive mechanism. 4. Break the monopoly of prediction. The high threshold of big data analysis makes it a powerful tool for large companies to monopolize the market. The general public cannot participate in and benefit from it. It is predicted that the arrival of the market will be democratized.
        Oraclechain and Delphy have listed several major application scenarios for forecasting the market in their respective project white papers. 1. Financial forecast: the forecast market can realize more detailed financial instruments than the existing financial derivatives, provide more accurate risk hedging tools for asset managers, and bring more subtle and detailed expression of economic events, so as to achieve macro and. 2. Sports prediction: the prediction market can be used to guess the results of sports competitions and predict the probability of sports related events. For example, will Los Angeles win the right to host the 2028 Olympic Games? Will Messi win the 2018 World Cup Golden Ball award? The distributed sports prediction market reduces the threshold of initiation and participation, realizes self-reliance and avoids the risk of single point collapse.
        3. Game prediction: the prediction market can not only be used to predict the results of competitive games, but also be used as a game playing method embedded in the production of games. It can also create a prediction market between different game stages to provide players with a real-time decision-making mechanism. 5. Current events prediction: the prediction market is widely used in the news and entertainment industry, such as the prediction of various variety Auditions (super girl voice winners, etc.), the prediction of program ratings, the prediction of film box office and the prediction of international current events. The Hollywood stock exchange market is a prediction market based on the movie box office. 6. Internal prediction: enterprises, governments, schools and other institutions can use the prediction market internally to make internal prediction on product release, sales and new stock issuance.
        These enterprises include Google, Microsoft, HP, Intel, Motorola and Simon. Since blockchain technology has been well known, there has been no large-scale application of blockchain technology except bitcoin. The reasons why blockchain technology lacks large-scale application are as follows:. 3. The lack of blockchain technology is more subversion and threat to the giants. To a certain extent, the obstacles of the current giants are also one of the factors that the blockchain technology cannot be applied on a large scale;. Under such circumstances, forecasting the market (guessing) or the breakthrough point of large-scale application of blockchain technology. This is because, to a certain extent, the forecast market is similar to gambling. For example, it is based on information integration and personal analysis and judgment, and finally comes to an "event result" recognized by itself.
        From initiating "events" to participating in "events", everyone can find their own interest in predicting the market. No matter whether they lose or win, from spectators to players, users can clearly see the fund dynamics brought by "events". The stimulus brought by the funds has greatly aroused the enthusiasm of users for predicting "events". Compared with blockchain games, which make profits by buying and selling game "props", the prediction market will stimulate users more and more directly! This is because it can not only participate in multiple "event" contests at the same time, but also initiate "event" contests by itself, and fully invest in the process of participation, rather than just invest energy or money.
        Let's talk about the profitability of the platform. Take Delphy (Tiansuan) as an example, 10% of the tokens will be allocated to the founding and development teams + platform users' guessing fees. Therefore, compared with blockchain games, the use of blockchain smart contracts in the prediction market is deeper and more extensive. In other words, forecasting the market is a powerful application for the execution of blockchain smart contracts. If the predicted market can avoid policy risks and make good use of the innovative application of blockchain smart contracts in different fields, it may become a breakthrough for the large-scale application of blockchain smart contracts.
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