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How much slower will it be to get out of bitcoin after halving? Will you be paralyzed? Someone predicted an average of 13 minutes?

Time : 18/02/2022 Author : fod6sb Click : + -
        Continue with the topic related to halving, because I am really interested in the process of halving. The change of price, computing power, block out time, and the difficulty adjustment process of BTC, BCH and BSV are all very interesting things. I have written two articles about BCH and BSV halving two days ago. If you are interested, you can go back and have a look. BCH has been halved. BSV will be halved tomorrow. What will happen if the computational power is reduced? Shock: BCH produced 84 blocks in 3 hours. The love and hatred between BCH and BSV in those years. Because BTC does not have the flexible difficulty adjustment algorithm DAA (block by block adjustment) like BCH and BSV, the difficulty adjustment of BTC is still adjusted once after 2016 blocks. Then after halving, how much will the block output affect after the computational force is greatly reduced? And how many blocks will be affected?.
 
        The first difficulty adjustment block before halving is 628992. The block when halving is 630000. The difficulty adjustment block after halving is 631008. The number of blocks to wait for difficulty adjustment after halving is 1008. My guess is 9 days. The estimation process is as follows: the first difficulty adjustment after halving will occur on the 9th day after halving. My estimation is as follows: the next difficulty adjustment is at the block height of 626976, the next time is at the block height of 628992, and the halving occurs at the block height of 630000. At this time, half of the difficulty adjustment cycle has been completed, leaving 1008 blocks.
 
        Suppose that because the reward is halved, the average block time is extended to 13 minutes, that is (1008*13/24*60) =9.1 days. If I guessed right, please remember to give me a compliment. After reading his estimate, you will certainly have questions. Why does the average block time extend to 13 minutes? How did this 13 minutes come about?. According to Xiong Yue's sharing, he refers to the 3.12 crash &mdash& mdash; Halve the price at one time &mdash& mdash; After that, he referred to the average time to get out of the block after the price almost halved during the sharp fall on March 12, 2020, and finally some of the computing power was reduced.
 
        Because he did not explain the details in detail, we accept this conclusion for the time being. I learned a lot from Xiong Yue. Here, I'll help Xiong Yue publicize on Weibo:. Bitmexceoarthurhayes, who assessed the impact of the COVID-19 on the global economy and financial markets, predicted that the computing power of bitcoin would drop by about 30% - 35% after it was halved, while his expectation of bitcoin price at the end of 2020 was still $20000. We assessed the impact of the block award halving event that occurred a few weeks later on the bitcoin mining industry. Assuming that the price of bitcoin remains unchanged and excluding the impact of transaction costs, mining revenue should decline by about 50%.
 
        However, this is not necessarily the case with network computing power. The decline of network computing power depends not only on the decline of block rewards, but also on the relationship between difficulty adjustment mechanism and mining structure. According to the current industry structure, and assuming that the price of bitcoin remains unchanged, we predict that halving may lead to a 30% - 35% decline in the computing power of bitcoin network. How did this 30% - 35% come about? I didn't say it in detail. I feel it's also bitmexceoarthurhayes' own experience. Let's accept it silently here. First of all, after referring to the analysis and thinking of others, I'm not very worried about the speed of BTC after the BTC is halved (I'm worried about whether it's useful … …), Before, I always worried that the bitcoin network would be paralyzed during the period when the difficulty was not adjusted after halving, which was a little groundless.
 
        Although the revenue is halved, it is impossible to halve the computing power. Although the blocking after bitcoin is halved (before the difficulty adjustment) will be affected, the worst thing is that the average blocking time should be 20 minutes. Of course, because of the impact of the block probability, the average block time should be within 20 minutes. Of course, the price of bitcoin is also a very important factor, because if the price of bitcoin can increase slightly compared with the current price (10:17:46 on April 14, 2020, bitcoin price $6868.61), then there will be more profitable mining machines. After bitcoin is halved, part of the computing power of bitcoin will flow to BCH and BSV, and then a new balance will be reached. Today, continue to record their computing power distribution:.
 
        Xiong Yue - gossip about bitcoin halving bitmexceo: after halving, the computing power of bitcoin may be reduced by 30% to 35%, and the target price at the end of the year is $20000 Babbitt to serve blockchain innovators.
 
        
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