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Chain group AMA | blockchain is so profitable, why do you still lose money?

Time : 14/12/2021 Author : iducgb Click : + -
        Why is blockchain called an industry? The first is an innovative and disruptive technology, which has become an industry through nearly a decade of development. First, cognition. Investment is a very professional thing, which requires systematic learning of knowledge and technology. Including finance, economics, cryptography, sociology and even philosophy, involving many aspects. Normal investment needs to be accumulated through continuous learning, trading and resumption. We should understand the reason and logic of our profits and losses. It is often said that "ability has no boundary, but cognition has boundary". Looking at the coin circle, it is rather anti intellectual, especially when you enter this circle, many people tell you "Soha", "hold", "allin", as long as you hold it, you can get rich in the future.
 
        This is a typical leek psychology. I didn't consider constantly improving my cognition through learning, systematically improving my investment ability and making my investment behavior more professional. Second, control. That is, risk management. In fact, the investment in the field of digital currency is often a challenge to people's desires and emotions. How to control your emotions, control your positions, and set your profit and loss stop point is very important. A friend of mine often says, "I'm a robot without feelings". If this can be done, the odds of winning in the rhythm of investment will be greater. Third, insist. The blockchain industry is consistent or similar to many industries. Many people entered this industry at the beginning with a speculative mentality, delusional of becoming rich overnight and making huge profits in a short time.
 
        But after entering the blockchain industry, you will find that, like other industries, it takes a long time to learn, accumulate and constantly try and error. We are all old leeks. We paid our tuition step by step. Including President Yan, who has been struggling in this industry and has been trying until now. Lingdong Yan Zitong: blockchain, a mysterious technology, was introduced into people's vision by the application of bitcoin in the early stage. We all know that bitcoin is generated by the hashing collision of computer CPU (commonly known as mining). Since the first professional ASIC chip miner came out in 2012 (at that time, the price of the miner was about 30000 yuan), 372 bitcoins can be mined on the first day, which is calculated by today's value.
 
        The rise of bitcoin has led to the rapid expansion of the chip industry and electricity. Several listed companies have also been born in the whole industrial chain. It can be said that the output of the next professional miner is very small (0.0000x output). As an industry that used to be at the top of the blockchain, it has not been spared from causing mining disasters. Why don't people in this circle, from getting rich overnight to running into the market, make money?. Zhang Lei of Liantuan: first, the influence of wealth effect has attracted a large number of people to suddenly rush into the industry. As a result, the computing power is scattered and increased sharply, and the income is reduced after being evenly distributed under the same conditions of equipment and machines. Second, after a large number of people entered the site, the overall mining ecological cost increased rapidly.
 
        A mining machine in Avalon was fired to 200000 or 300000 yuan by scalpers when it was the highest, but it still couldn't be delivered, causing many people to enter at a high level. However, the price of currency fluctuates. After entering the market at a high level, many people find that the cost is far greater than the income. This is the legendary dish catcher. Those with strength may also carry it, and those who don't will be washed out. Another point is mentality. Many people enter the market with the mentality of speculation, and want to get in and out quickly and make short-term profits. But in fact, this industry also needs time to precipitate and accumulate. Smart Yan Zitong: in the era of ICO, which is the earliest known blockchain, 2017 can be called the year of ICO. All kinds of stories and white papers are flying all over the sky, whether people are ghosts, as long as they dare to issue money, the market is also willing to pay the bill, and all people are empty at once.
 
        So, why did ICO suddenly appear? And the rise speed is far faster than all financial fund-raising and other projects? Such a hot market, with the background of blockchain expansion, should be a very advanced and high-quality project, so what is the income of the participants? Is it also like the wealth explosion of Shenzhen xiahaichao and the stock Internet industry at the beginning?. First, from a technical perspective, it benefits from the technological innovation of Ethereum smart contract. Before Ethereum, issuing money was a matter of high technical threshold. But after the emergence of Ethereum, whether you understand technology or not, you can do "coin". Second, from the perspective of wealth effect, just 17 years ago, due to the impact of bitcoin halving in 16 years, the price of bitcoin rose sharply, to the extent that CCTV will broadcast the rise of bitcoin price every three to five times.
 
        At that time, many people earned tens of times or hundreds of times on the popular ICO, but they even thought they could earn tens of thousands of times because of their insufficient understanding of blockchain. Brainwashing "hold", there is no cash out in the high position. In 2020, most projects have disappeared. In fact, 17 years has created a lot of wealth. As long as people are not greedy, they can still make money. But there are also many unreliable projects that deceive many people. Lingdong Yan Zitong: the time has come to the post ICO era in 2018, and various counterfeit coins have emerged. The issuing process is more direct and concise, the cost is also low to no lower limit, and the project cycle is as short as weeks.
 
        Even so, investors are still entering the market one after another. The number and scale of investors are far larger than that in 2017, and the market capital has also exploded several times or even dozens of times. This phenomenon is really puzzling. What is driving such a large investor to continue to rush forward without knowing that there is a sickle and an abyss ahead? What is the result of these people in the end? If most people are losing money as in 2017, who made the money?. Zhang Lei of Liantuan: 18 years is a big bear market. In summary, it is human gambling. Once people see the huge profits and high returns behind the industry, such as "100 times coin", they will be willing to "take a fight and turn bicycles into motorcycles".
 
        But this is the same as gambling. Gambling is "ten bets and nine losses". And many people didn't realize what blockchain was at that time? It is only driven by herd behavior to participate in this industry. Just feel "he has made money, I'm no more stupid than him, why can't I?". In fact, it's still listening to others' stories when you don't know enough. After experiencing these lessons, we should clearly realize that blockchain is only a technology, and bitcoin is only a small application under blockchain technology. It's not that mysterious. Don't be attracted by the so-called myth of sudden wealth, enter the arena in a muddle, and come out inexplicably. Lingdong Yan Zitong: when it comes to money, it is inseparable from the love hate topic of the exchange. Without the exchange, there will be no prosperity of the token market. However, with the prosperity and complexity of the trading market, the exchange also began to break its duty and want to get a piece of it.
 
        During the ICO period, scandals about the marked price of currencies on all kinds of large and small exchanges and dozens of new currencies a day emerged one after another. When cutting leeks, it was ugly to eat, and it was directly shared with the project party. In recent years, the emergence of derivatives such as contract futures has led to forced cutting behaviors such as pulling out the wire from the control board. Is the exchange the biggest winner?. Zhang Lei, the chain group: the exchange must be profitable, whether it is the head or the second line. In terms of blockchain, the exchange is the one that has a clear leading mode. That is to say, the transaction commission, currency fee and other expenses are the main living income. But why don't coin speculators make money? Because the transaction volume of digital currency is not very large, the market value of BTC is only more than $100 billion, which is not worth an Alibaba company.
 
        So it can be manipulated very much. Traditional fields have more dimensions to be restrained, including supervision, larger capital volume, institutional parties' game, and higher degree of difficulty to be manipulated. Needless to say, bitcoin has some small projects in the currency circle, and a small amount of money can manipulate the market. Some "dog farms" are combined to manipulate currency price fluctuations, creating an illusion to attract leeks from the secondary market. When the volume of leeks entering the site reaches the expectation, it is likely to cut leeks. There will also be repeated processes. That's why I still don't make money after entering the site. It is all manipulated by the banker. If you buy with a large amount of money, you will find that you have hit a big hole, so don't be fooled by the short-term surge.
 
        Lingdong Yan Zitong: over the years, the currency circle has been developing, and the sickle has also evolved. In recent oneortwo years, there has been the sharpest sickle, financial derivatives &mdash& mdash; Contract. Since the beginning of 2018, bitcoin has been declining, and the nature of various projects has also been recognized by everyone. At the same time, the leek field in the circle has been cut into a desert. Some investors have turned to the mainstream currency contract market, that is, high leverage. The contract market can make money in both directions, and the capital volume is suddenly n times larger than the spot market. Therefore, the emergence of contracts is a restriction for the blockchain industry. Lian Tuan Zhang Lei: why do you play with contracts? Because the liquidity of the spot will be relatively poor and the maneuverability will be relatively small.
 
        In a bear market, many people want to bet 50% of the odds, which is higher than 99% of the downward market. But in essence, it's all gambling. Ten bets and nine losses. I personally understand that derivatives are far more lethal than good in the current blockchain industry without a very formal situation. This will magnify the evil and greed of human nature.
 
        
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