Blockchain circle

One stop hot information platform

About us:

Blockchain circle provides the latest information about blockchain, digital currency, digital wallet, exchange, metauniverse, bitcoin, Ethereum, contract, financial management and so on, and always pays attention to the latest market...

CICC: "ai+5g" is a general technology platform in the era of digital economy

Time : 18/06/2021 Author : 790jgx Click : + -
        We believe that (1) semiconductor; (2) Information technology; (3) Communication technology; (4) The evolution of general technology platform represented by intelligent hardware is an important driving force to promote the development of digital economy. In the past 10 years, the popularity of 4G and mobile Internet has changed all aspects of life, such as social networking, shopping, video and so on. According to CICC statistics, the market value of core related enterprises, including software and hardware equipment and Internet enterprises, in all U.S. stocks has increased by 15ppt to 27% in the past 10 years. China's digital industrialization, including the Internet, reached 7.1 trillion yuan in 2019, becoming an important pillar to support the upper platform economy and industrial applications.
        In the future, with the development of new generation information technology represented by 5g, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, Internet of things, blockchain, we believe that logistics, manufacturing, medical, mobile Internet and other industries will accelerate the pace of digital transformation. 5g+ai is a general technology platform in the era of Digital Economy: looking at the development history of the technology industry in the past three decades, the development of general technology platform has experienced (1) from mainframe to personal computer; (2) From personal computer to mobile phone; (3) Three major iterations from mobile phones to AI cloud computing. At present, we have entered the era of artificial intelligence + cloud computing, and the core layer of digital economy is becoming increasingly important in the real economy and capital market.
        Looking ahead, we believe that on the one hand, the value of data is becoming increasingly prominent, on the other hand, the problem of "data islands" is becoming increasingly prominent. Blockchain + Internet of things based on distributed architecture is expected to become the next generation of general technology platform after cloud computing. What is the gap between China and the United States? Focusing on R & D and globalization are the two factors that help the success of science and technology enterprises. After 30 years of industry development, China has achieved global leading advantages in 5g (Communication Technology), AI applications, hardware manufacturing and other scientific and technological fields, but there is still a large gap compared with the United States in the fields of semiconductors, software, cloud computing and so on. Over the past 30 years, several changes such as PC and mobile Internet have almost been led by American enterprises. We believe that the reasons include the global business model of American enterprises to support their high R & D investment, as well as a good protection mechanism for intellectual property rights.
        Looking forward to the future, we believe that Chinese manufacturers have comprehensive capabilities in communication technology, mechanical technology, algorithms, e-commerce channels, precision manufacturing and other aspects. Further strengthening R & D investment will help Chinese science and technology enterprises improve their voice in more core areas in the future. What changes will ai+5g bring? We believe that ai+5g will promote social change and open up new growth space. 1) In the field of driverless driving, we believe that with the joint empowerment of ai+5g, intelligent driving will gradually upgrade and iterate from the current ADAS (l0-l2) to driverless driving; 2) In the field of manufacturing, various applications of industrial Internet are expected to achieve tripartite collaboration among cloud, industry and cross-border, and promote the continuous maturity of new models and new business forms such as intelligent production, networked collaboration and supply chain finance; 3) In the medical field, ai+5g is expected to run through the whole process of "pre diagnosis, during diagnosis and after diagnosis", giving birth to the reconstruction of the overall pattern of the medical industry; 4) In the enterprise field, ai+5g is expected to accelerate the completion of mobile, remote, automated and intelligent transformation of enterprises; 5) In the field of mobile Internet, we believe that the combination of AI and 5g will further enhance the convenience that mobile Internet brings to people's lives.
        The business process of artificial intelligence is less than expected; The implementation of ai+5g in various industries is less than expected; Internet data monopoly has an adverse impact on data circulation; Core technology iterations are fast. From a macro perspective, the core layer is the bottom building supporting the development of digital economy. This base mainly includes (1) semiconductor, (2) information technology (it), (3) communication technology, and (4) intelligent hardware. In this base, semiconductors, as the most essential computing and storage hardware units, play the role of bricks and tiles, support the realization of data processing functions, and produce more interactive and valuable data information. Information technology is equivalent to the structure of the base. It enables the core layer to operate through software means, which determines the efficiency of data transmission and value creation.
        Communication technology is the connecting pipe in the base building, which plays the role of information transmission carrier in the core layer. Intelligent hardware is equivalent to the "network nerve endings" of the core layer. It obtains and displays information through human-computer interaction, and realizes the interaction between economic activity subjects and data information in the core layer, or interacts with other hardware and collects new data. Specifically, the core layer technology iteration is the foundation of the special attributes of data. It is in the continuous iteration of the core layer technology that the exponential decline in the storage, calculation and transmission costs of information is realized at the software and hardware level, thus reducing the search cost, replication cost, transmission cost, tracking cost and verification cost in digital economic activities.
        As a production factor in the era of digital economy, data has created special micro laws of digital economy, such as non competitiveness, economies of scale, network effect, economies of scope and so on. Semiconductors are the cornerstone of the development of the core layer of the digital economy, and "Moore's law" promotes the long-term iterative innovation of the industry. In the past 50 years, under the premise that the price of semiconductors is almost unchanged, the number of components per unit area will double every 18 months (Moore's law), which has become one of the important driving forces to promote productivity. The global semiconductor market mainly includes semiconductor design, wafer foundry, packaging and testing, design software (EDA), equipment, semiconductor materials and other links.
        Among them, American enterprises occupy a leading position in the design of software, semiconductor equipment and other links. In the future, the development of semiconductors will promote the rapid growth of (1) cloud data center computing power, (2) AI computing power, and (3) 5g upper tier applications. Information technology represents the structure of the core layer of the digital economy, and ABC (artificial intelligence, blockchain, Cloud Computing) promotes the digital transformation of society. In the PC era, computers and the Internet have begun to approach individual consumers, search engines, portal websites, e-commerce and other websites have sprung up, and human society has really entered the information age; In the era of mobile Internet, with the popularity of intelligent mobile terminals, the rapid development of apple Appstore and Google playstore app store makes it possible to digitize mobile payment, taxi, meal ordering and takeout, bike sharing and other services.
        Since NVIDIA, Amazon and other companies proposed the concept of "cloud +ai" in 2015, the next generation of general computing platform is undergoing changes. According to IDC, the global public cloud market reached $233.4 billion in 2019 (a year-on-year increase of 26%); According to Gartner, the enterprise software market reached $477billion in 2019. Communication technology is the connecting pipeline of the core layer of digital economy. 4G to 5g change the society. From 2G to 5g, the resistance of information transmission continues to decrease, the bandwidth of mobile communication is increased from 0.1mb/s to the maximum 10g/s, and the delay is reduced from 500ms to 1ms; At the same time, the rate of communication traffic has been declining.
        More user-friendly and cheap communication technologies have given birth to new applications such as wechat, mobile games, mobile e-commerce, and short video, which have changed all aspects of our lives and continue to promote the upgrading of intelligent terminals. Looking forward to the 5g era, high-frequency and high-density base stations can handle a large number of access signals, and the energy utilization of the network is more efficient, supporting the communication needs of a large number of intelligent terminals. We expect to realize the interconnection of everything and promote social change; New connection technologies such as Internet of things, Internet of vehicles and satellite Internet are also expected to further develop. According to Gartner, the global spending on communication services reached $1372billion in 2019; On the infrastructure side, the global wireless network infrastructure market is about US $35.9 billion.
        In the main equipment sector, Huawei, ZTE, Ericsson and Nokia have formed a four part monopoly competition. Intelligent hardware is the "nerve endings" of the core layer of digital economy, and the transformation of interaction mode expands the application boundary of digital technology. The upgrading of interactive mode is the main line of iterative upgrading of intelligent hardware. Looking back on history, we can see that from keyboard (push), touch screen (multi touch), AI voice assistant (voice), to arvr (Optics), brain computer interface (neuroelectric signal), each round of upgrading of interaction mode has brought a significant increase in interaction bandwidth and data volume, and has also continuously broadened the application scope of digital technology, and the connection level is moving towards the interconnection of everything.
        From the perspective of the evolution of scientific and technological hardware, there is a large scientific and technological hardware innovation cycle every 10-15 years. We believe that the next 10-year access signal innovation cycle is starting. According to our prediction, the scale of the global intelligent hardware market in 2019 is about $835.5 billion, with a CAGR of 8% increasing to $1312.6 billion in 2025; Among them, the market size of the aiot industry is about US $157.8 billion, with a CAGR of 21% growing to US $489.2 billion in 2025, surpassing that of smartphones. In the broad sense of aiot (aiot+ automotive electronics), the market scale will exceed that of smart phones in 2023, and the growth of TWS, smart watches, smart speakers, arvr, smart cars and other categories is worth looking forward to.
        In the past three decades, the general technology platform experience of the technology industry (1) from mainframe to personal computer; (2) From personal computer to mobile phone; (3) Three major iterations from mobile phones to AI cloud computing. In these changes, communication technology has been upgraded from the original private network to wired g; From the initial centralized computing to the distributed computing of PC and mobile phone, the computing architecture has returned to centralized computing from the era of AI cloud computing. Looking forward to the future, whether blockchain + Internet of things based on distributed architecture will become a general technology platform after cloud computing has attracted widespread attention. Every technological change includes the rise of a number of important technology enterprises. This includes IBM in the mainframe era, Microsoft and Intel in the PC Internet Era (Wintel alliance), apple, arm and Google in the mobile Internet era, and Amazon, Microsoft and NVIDIA in the AI cloud computing era.
        Mainframe era (centralized computing): before the 1990s, with the IT process of the financial system, centralized computing with high reliability, high integrity and strong consistency developed rapidly. The software and hardware integrated mainframe launched by enterprises represented by IBM became the mainstream of computing power and was supported by large enterprises such as finance, but its popularity was limited by the high price. Mainframe originally refers to a large computer system installed in a very large iron box with a frame; With the increasing integration of chips, the computing performance of small computers is gradually enhanced, and the market share of mainframe is facing severe challenges.
        PC era (Distributed Computing): at the end of last century and the beginning of this century, with the sharp decline of semiconductor costs and the emergence of personal Internet (mainly wired network), personal computer platforms represented by Microsoft and Intel began to popularize. With the emergence of Wintel Alliance (microsoftwindows+intelcpu), the business model of separating software and hardware implemented by Microsoft and Intel has become the mainstream, and gradually replaced IBM's dominant position in the host era. In terms of hardware, Intel continues to improve CPU computing power under Moore's law, while Microsoft upgrades windows system rapidly accordingly.
        The combination of strong and powerful forces promotes the continuous iteration of the PC industry, and the development of PC products changes with each passing day. Mobile Internet Era (Distributed Computing): in January 2007, Apple released the first generation iPhone, opening the era of smart phones and mobile Internet. The computing power carrier is further transferred from the fixed computer end to the portable mobile phone end. The software and hardware integration mode implemented by apple and the software and hardware separation of Android operating system +arm chip implemented by Google have become two main modes. Artificial intelligence + Cloud Computing Era (centralized computing): cloud computing was first launched by Amazon in 2006. It provides enterprises with a computing and storage service of demand based and volume based billing, which helps enterprises cope with sudden demand changes and reduce it expenditure.
        Cloud computing platform can gather a large amount of data and provide the basis for the development of artificial intelligence. With the development of technology, its advantages are valued, and ai+cloud has gradually become a general computing platform. The next era or blockchain + Internet of things (Distributed Computing): in the era of artificial intelligence + cloud computing, we believe that on the one hand, the value of data has become increasingly prominent and has become the "oil" of the digital economy era; On the other hand, data is increasingly concentrated in the hands of a small number of Internet giants / cloud computing manufacturers, and the problem of "data island" is becoming increasingly prominent. The cross-border circulation of data has also become one of the difficulties of transnational cooperation among technology enterprises. We believe that big data legislation is a prerequisite for standardizing and promoting data use, and the construction of a data asset trading platform driven by blockchain + Internet of things is expected to promote data circulation, improve data use efficiency, and give full play to the potential value of data integration.
        The core layer includes industries such as hardware, software, information and communication technology, among which the semiconductor and electronic manufacturing industries are the most important. From the perspective of digital economy, the core layer is an important basic link of digital economy. According to the figures of the China Academy of communications technology, the added value of China's digital industrialization, including the Internet, reached 7.1 trillion yuan in 2019, accounting for 7.2% of GDP. The core layer of digital economy is not only an important part of digital economy, but also an important pillar to support the upper platform economy and industry applications. In the past 10 years, under the background of the great development of 4G Mobile Internet, core industries including hardware manufacturing, software and information services have developed rapidly, and the importance of information technology industry in the real economy and capital market has been continuously highlighted.
        Taking the United States as an example, the market value of American information technology companies (equivalent to the core digital sector and the narrow digital economy in the figure below) including software and hardware equipment and Internet enterprises in all U.S. stocks has increased by 15ppt to 27% in the past 10 years, and the total market value of the energy industry has decreased significantly in the same period. The Chinese market showed a more obvious trend of "scissors gap". The market value of information technology enterprises in all A-share + Hong Kong stock + U.S. China concept stock market accounted for 9% from 2010, an increase of 13.4ppt to 22.4% in July 2020; Over the same period, the market value of energy enterprises fell by 16.9ppt. Note: red represents information technology enterprises; Yellow represents energy enterprises; Gray represents financial enterprises, and brown represents operators. Source: Bloomberg, CICC research department.
        After nearly a century of global industrial transfer, the current pattern of global core areas has basically taken shape. 1) The United States leads the world in cloud computing, Internet services, software, semiconductors, etc; 2) Japan and South Korea mainly focus on electronic components and semiconductors, of which Japan prefers electronic components and South Korea focuses on semiconductors; 3) Taiwan, China is mainly engaged in semiconductor OEM and electronic components; 4) Chinese Mainland focuses on communication equipment, electronic components, Internet services, etc; 5) With the industrial transfer in recent years, Vietnam and India have undertaken some assembly and component businesses. In general, after 30 years of development, China has global leading advantages in 5g (Communication Technology), AI application, hardware manufacturing and other scientific and technological fields; However, there is still a big gap in the fields of semiconductors and software in China.
        The following sub industries are described in detail. Over the past decade, China has significantly improved its capabilities in parts, communication equipment and Internet services. Through the collation and analysis of more than 4000 listed companies in the technology industry around the world, we can see that in the past decade, China (including Hong Kong) has made significant progress in the technology industry
Previous:Sermon blockchain | the creation block of bitcoin in 10 years has changed the historical process
Next:No more

Related articles:

© 2005-2032 | Blockchain Circle & & All Rights Reserved    Sitemap1 Sitemap2 If there is infringement, please contact us at: