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Market status, landing and investment logic of blockchain

Time : 31/10/2021 Author : 9wj42m Click : + -
        I want to provide another perspective on blockchain from the perspective of investors. For start-ups, they will always contact investors in the later stage of development. First of all, let's take a look at the attention of blockchain in the whole society, which is a perspective we often consider when selecting fields. Blockchain has received widespread attention from the public. According to the Google keyword search frequency chart, the popularity of blockchain has increased bit by bit since 2014, with an outbreak in 2015 and an increase in 2016. Related to public concern, we can see that in terms of investment, this is the status of global blockchain investment we have seen so far. There are several data you can feel.
 
        First, the number of blockchain enterprises. From 2012 to the beginning of 2017, the known growth rate averaged 65%. From the perspective of global start-ups that have received financing, nearly 500 start-ups have received financing in varying amounts by may 2017. Second, from the characteristics of the financing amount, as early as 2012, some investment institutions invested 2million in some blockchain enterprises. By 2016, the annual investment amount had been 1.8 billion, with an average growth rate of more than 500%. Third, in terms of fields, we can see that blockchain technology is most widely used in the financial industry, most of which are foreign companies, as well as Chinese start-ups.
 
        Fourth, geographically, North America, especially the United States, accounts for half of the country, and the United Kingdom also accounts for a part. Generally speaking, foreign blockchain enterprises are more active. Fifth, from the perspective of the attention of investment institutions, some major international institutions, such as Goldman Sachs, will also look at and invest in this field in 2015. Statistics show that there are nearly 200 investment institutions. Of course, these 200 refer to institutions with a certain scale, and the small ones are not included. Judging from the trend of new technology development and the basic law of gaining investors' favor, the current investment in blockchain is at the right time. Any new technology will generally be divided into several stages. After its birth, it has received great attention, and everyone's expectations for it are very high, exceeding its limit; Then there will be a downward trend, and enterprises that disappoint everyone will continue to appear; Then the industry returns to rationality; Finally, some companies with a solid practical foundation will rise, reach a scale, and flourish.
 
        The same is true of blockchain. For example, in 2013, the soaring price of bitcoin attracted the attention of many people, and many large institutions began to wonder what the blockchain was all about. We all know that the underlying technology of bitcoin does have some characteristics, which can also be applied in other places. This high attention immediately ushered in an expected expansion period. In 2015, there were also some landmark events, such as the establishment of Dah, R3 and openledger. In addition to these large organizations, there are various institutions that understand blockchain from their own perspectives. So 2015 is a PoC flying stage.
 
        As time goes by, you will soon find that a large number of experiments are still in the POC stage, which is far from the real application. So in 2016, we entered a period of disillusionment. Start-ups that lack core competitiveness either shift direction or end up in failure. At this stage, 2017 is the recovery period of enlightenment, and companies with a solid application foundation have come out. The experimental projects are still in the trial operation stage, and the surviving start-ups have developed products that meet the actual needs. From now on, it should be a climbing stage and enter a stable period of production. From the perspective of investment, when you invest in a new field, you often pay more attention at this stage.
 
        Next, I want to share why blockchain can be applied to many fields? In fact, we still need to understand it from the perspective of the essence and characteristics of blockchain. Blockchain has many definitions, which is a common feature of new technologies at this stage. For example, people often say that blockchain technology builds the next generation of value Internet, or blockchain technology is a way to trust intermediaries, and a technical solution to collectively maintain a reliable database, which is an understanding of blockchain technology. I personally agree with another statement, that is, blockchain is a large-scale collaboration tool. This statement is only a result of blockchain technology. So far, the essence of blockchain has not been dug out.
 
        Why can it become a tool for large-scale enterprise collaboration? Why can't other technologies do it before? Dig further and you will find that the essence of blockchain is to provide unprecedented accounting technology or database. In other words, when we keep accounts, it can ensure that what we write down is an objective fact recognized by all parties concerned. That is, we take paper and notes of this account. When we write down each account, everyone can verify it. After recording the true and recognized information on the chain, no one can change it without agreement. It is because of these two characteristics that the value of blockchain is built.
 
        So this is its essence. If this is the essence, you can think about how much will be related to this in the real world, and how many economic behaviors or economic activities will need such technology. From business system database to real estate registration, all kinds of registration systems actually need this. So in this sense, it will have a great impact on many industries, but we are still in the process of testing, and have not really improved every good application. Next, let me talk about the value of ICO. This financing method of ICO is conducive to the development of blockchain technology itself, because ICO is only good in the field of blockchain, and any other field is the way of traditional VC.
 
        For the first time, the ICO of blockchain project is an incentive mechanism designed by an open source community project for open source developers. With this, many open source projects can be open source, and developers participating in this project can get real business. This incentive mechanism is very large. Previously, open source projects may also have incentives, but they are external incentives. Only ICO provides an endogenous incentive mechanism. Some statistics show that in 2016, the traditional investment of blockchain was 496million, and ICO reached 236million, accounting for half of the traditional VC investment. I think ICO will keep pace with traditional VC in the blockchain field in the future.
 
        Of course, ICO has a short history today, and there are still many imperfections from the design project. There are five potential risks. First, the risk of absconding with money and the lack of audit and custody of the assets raised. Now a standard ICO is like this. Issue a white paper, let's have a look, and then it ends as soon as it lands. There are still many potential rules. For example, in previous years, there were many cases. An ICO project came out, everyone invested in it, and then disappeared. So far, it is still in this state. Therefore, there is still a risk that the project proposer absconds with the money. Second, the risk of over commitment.
 
        The traditional IPO is that the company needs to look good. When I sell it, everyone can see it clearly. ICO is for me to write a few pages, say what I plan to do and what functions I want to achieve, and then everyone will give me the money. Whether it can be realized well or not actually needs a question mark. Third, there is a risk of overvaluation. At present, a very detailed or convincing pricing mechanism has not been formed. It is more the initiator of the project who generates a pricing based on the needs of project development or his own understanding. There may be the so-called phased false high investment problem. Fourth, investors are too optimistic. Investors may see more space for future ICO projects, but in fact, in the slightly long run, there can be no sustained windfall profits.
 
        Fifth, it is difficult for investors to control the risks of the project. After the completion of this project, there is often a certain development cycle. How to develop this project and how to promote it. Few ICO projects can list clear future development plans. This means that investors can't actually control what they can do after investing their money. So this is the current situation and risks of ICO. Of course, we will not deny the development potential of this financing model because of these deficiencies. It is precisely because there are so many deficiencies now, so the future ICO ecosystem needs to be improved in many aspects, and the corresponding institutions should also appear, so as to make ICO more transparent and controllable.
 
        Then, I want to talk about how to explore a good blockchain application scenario. We often hear that blockchain lacks killer applications, which is still the case today. So what kind of scenario will be a better one?. Let's go back to the understanding of the essence of blockchain technology. If it is understood as a technology with two characteristics, then finding a scenario that can give full play to these two characteristics is a good scenario. First, a good blockchain technology application scenario must involve multiple trust subjects, and we need to have a way to trust intermediaries to cooperate. Another question from the perspective of investors is what kind of company they will invest in.
 
        It seems that all investments are based on these aspects, such as team, technology, direction, etc. Among them, I would like to emphasize that when we look at the project, in addition to the technology itself, we also look at the team's ability and some previous business experience of the team. One is to use blockchain technology to solve some problems that have been solved by other technologies. Among them, blockchain technology can better reduce costs or improve efficiency; Another is to use blockchain to solve problems that cannot be solved by existing technologies. Generally speaking, it can be divided into two categories. Of course, the latter is more explosive, but the latter is not so many. So we often see that many blockchain technologies are mainly to solve the problems that can be solved originally, but with higher efficiency.
 
        In these areas, there are often powerful vested interest groups. The characteristics of blockchain technology make it often move some huge, such as the cake of vested interest groups in the traditional financial field. At this time, you encounter great resistance. Therefore, you must have relevant industry resources and product resources for product landing. This is also the reason why blockchain projects are less implemented. Because this technology is more to solve existing problems. If it's a technical team without corresponding scenarios and industry resources, it's very hard. Finally, I dare to talk about the outlook. The reason why I dare to talk about it is because the development of blockchain technology itself is still at a very early stage. Nine times out of ten, I am wrong. But based on the enterprises we have been in contact with in this industry in the past two years and our own thinking, we believe that the real killer application of blockchain technology in the future will be "+ blockchain" integrating all kinds of new technologies.
 
        The previously mentioned "blockchain +" is like "Internet +" blockchain + big data, blockchain + artificial intelligence. The idea is that blockchain is the foundation, plus other technologies. But I think the killer businesses, industries and scenarios in the future should be the reverse, all kinds of technologies + blockchain. This goes back to the essence of blockchain. Now there are still many vague and inaccurate concepts in the understanding of blockchain. Blockchain is a little too weak or too broad. We must hand over what the blockchain does to the blockchain, and we can't count on what the blockchain doesn't do. Don't exaggerate it, exaggeration will harm it, and eventually mislead the understanding of blockchain.
 
        Let me talk about the relationship between blockchain and artificial intelligence, Internet of things, big data, cloud computing. No one can escape from the bottom of these new technologies. The future of the Internet of things is the interconnection of all things, which means that good data on this Internet is massive data, machine interaction data. Based on these interactive data, the machine will move. Among them, there may be the risk of data recording errors or being tampered with after recording. I think no one dares to use it in depth. The same is true of other technologies. We regard blockchain technology as a reliable and tamper proof bottom layer, and build higher-level applications on it. I think walking towards this area may impact the future.
 
        
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